NestoFC

Just noticed the prices for these have been revised downward by $209k (WOW!):
$639,950
3 Bed, 2 Bath
1,900 Sq. Ft.
0.08 Acres - Mon Aug 18 2008, 10:55

Just saw one of these duets come up...
$849,000
3 Bed, 2 Bath
2,000 Sq. Ft.
0.08 Acres Lot - Wed Mar 26 2008, 11:10

Steve - I'm not shill - you can see from previous posts that I'm a RE-profession skeptic, but here's a post from a RE blog with a little market info about Blackhawk.
http://lauren4homes.featuredblog.com/?p=75

This RE blog focuses on Alamo, Danville, Blackhawk and close-by communities. Her opinion is similar to mine from several months ago...
"Blackhawk, which has suffered a more severe buyer’s market than the rest of Danville (and the reason I look at it separately), had five homes sell last week, the number of homes pending grew, and the inventory dipped. It’s only a single week, hopefully the trend will continue and the Blackhawk market will improve. You may wonder why Blackhawk homes aren’t selling as well as the rest of Danville…my opinion is that those homes have all reached a certain age and many of them don’t have very large lots. Many do have wonderful large lots, but a great many of them are zero-lot lines or just smallish lots. Land, above all, holds value. As the homes become “dated” they become hard to sell without a large lot to give it value." - Tue Jul 22 2008, 12:26

Alamo is an interesting market. Broad generalizations here, but you will see the very run down places over the last year at the $900k - $1.1M level. Sometimes these will be right next door to a remodeled place that would go for $2M. Go up just a bit to $1.2M and you'll start to see some decent places that are probably in good structural shape and just need some updating. And then at $1.3, they start to get pretty nice.

Families that want to buy in Alamo are often going to be buyers who don't mind the thought of a fixer-upper - they'll turn a eyesore into a gorgeous place in a year or two. They will like the rural feel, but also like being close to the freeway (though there are some newer Alamo neighborhoods east and far from the freeway too) and downtown Walnut Creek. And they want the larger lots.

Personally, yes, I do think prices will come down in these areas - but take it with a grain of salt when anyone who tells you prices will definitely go up or definitely come down.

I don't want to come off harsh vs. realtors - I've worked with quite a few excellent ones over the years - but just remember that they are salespeople and have a vested interest in convincing sellers and buyers that prices will go up, same with mortgage brokers. One only need to look at the last two years of history of statements from the NAR to see how well they do on economic forecasting for the housing market (summary: pretty badly).

My advice would be to stay on top of the local market conditions with the help of a realtor, but do research yourself as well on local, state and national trends. IMO, there are just too many trends that point to further downward adjustment needed - the number of foreclosures and bank-owned properties in these areas seems to be growing substantially, inventory is high, downward price adjustments on existing inventory is common, many places just never sold last season and are now rentals, and resale house prices are just too much of a premium (vs. historical trends) over rental costs. - Mon Jan 21 2008, 14:21

We love Alamo. We knew what we wanted in a neighborhood, and it fits us. You, of course, just need to figure out what you want.

IMO, in any of the communities along 680 and 24 you'll find your share of run down places - San Ramon, Danville, Alamo, Lafayette, etc. all have neighborhoods that are 30+ years old. I don't doubt that the lower end of Blackhawk neighborhoods will be just like Roundhill or Crow Canyon Country club in another 10 or so years - you know, long time owners who haven't updated. You can see it already in some of the older and less expensive Blackhawk neighborhoods. You might not see beater cars in the driveways because the CCRs keep some of that in check, but you can walk through and see the interior decorating styles of the 80s ;-) Not trying to dis Blackhawk at all, it's a great choice, but you want to make sure it fits you before you pay the premium. If I was advising a friend, I'd tell them that they should look elsewhere unless they were a golfer, or were able to buy in the top-end parts of Blackhawk.

You are so right, I laugh at some of the utter junk we've seen. $1M+ asking prices for places I'd be scared to spend a night in! - Mon Jan 21 2008, 12:27

Sorry...

FINALLY, it is quite a trek to the freeway. I used to live near Blackhawk. I'd have to guess that from Blackhawk it would take at least 15 and maybe up to 25 minutes to reach 680 at Crow Canyon Road. Maybe a little faster to Diablo Road and 680 depending on where you're talking about. - Fri Jan 18 2008, 13:55

Oh, and you're so right about Alamo and Lamorinda (disclosure: I live in Alamo). When I hear "funky westside," I cringe because I know it mean... "the various owners have added on to the house 3 separate time with no regard to how the house functions and there is probably a grave of some original valley resident in the walls of the original building." ;-)

And for how it's referred... Blackhawk is technically not part of Danville, it is unincorporated Contra Costa county (which poses it's own unique issues), but it does share a ZIP code with Danville (94506), so people are lax about the distinction. - Fri Jan 18 2008, 13:51

Hi Susan, I'll give you the non-RE professional perspective as a 20+ year resident of the East Bay. I've been looking quite intensely along the 680 corridor over that last year as I suspect at some point in the near future it will be a reasonably good time to buy.

Blackhawk has had its ups and downs. If you're a golfer, Blackhawk is a place you'd definitely want to consider with two nice courses. The older of the two underwent a major face lift in 2001.

The age of Blackhawk residents is a little bit older than Danville proper, but not much. Surprisingly, the % of houses with kids is just about the same as in Danville proper. Friends who live there, however, tell me that even with lots of families with kids, Blackhawk just isn't a family friendly community. You'll notice just about no sidewalks. Very few parks. Just not much in the way of kids activities.

There are no public schools in Blackhawk - all the kids go to the excellent SRV schools. There is one private school - Athenian for grades 6 to 12 - in Danville right on the edge of Blackhawk.

Some of the neighborhoods are getting pretty long in the tooth, dating back to the early 80's. You can start to see some places where the owners just haven't kept up with maintenance.

Overall, not as snooty as Diablo (a much older, smaller and more expensive community). If you want family friendly golf living, maybe look at Roundhill too? No question these types of communities command a premium, even as prices are falling, the premium will still be there. So if you're not interested in golf, you might want to look elsewhere. - Fri Jan 18 2008, 13:46

I was curious after this discussion so I did a little research and found some interesting statistics at piggington.com and some other bubble blogs. I don't have CCCo-specific data, but it seems that across most of California the historical average is between 20% and 60% of NODs turn into Trustee Sales. Right now, that percentage is climbing very quickly toward the 60% end of the range. Kind of surprised me - I didn't think that many NODs would proceed through the foreclosure process. - Wed Mar 5 2008, 19:51

Don't subscribe to RealtyTrac anymore (so maybe Dr.p can correct me if I'm off) and, yes, I realize that Realty Trac can double count and have inaccuracies, but I count over 70 REOs, over 30 upcoming auction properties, and over 90 NODs in 94582. Back of the envelope estimate, but properties in the foreclosure process (including NODs) total about 40% of resale properties. Some will depend on how many of those NODs turn into short sales, auctions or REOs, but I predict a coming foreclosure wave in San Ramon.

I'm usually a market bull, but cities and towns like San Ramon and Danville will not escape this correction. Despite all the bad news that we've already heard (especially east CCCo) the Easy Bay RE correction is still very early days. It will be severe.

It would be interesting to know who owns the property. Is this a lender strategy? Or their agents' strategy? Small lender who just wants to get their losses on the books and collect their insurance? Or a larger lender who can see the coming wave and knows they need to get out quickly? - Tue Mar 4 2008, 18:49

Wow, the lender really wants to unload it I guess. Nice find Dr..p, did you see the sale history:
01/04/2008: $945,175 *
03/23/2005: $969,000
09/23/2004: $842,000
* I assume this is the loan default amount. So the bank is taking a loss of $160k plus transaction costs ;-)

Be interested to see if this goes fast and how it affects the neighborhood prices. There are going to be more and more REOs in a place like Windemere where many home were bought using toxic loans. - Tue Mar 4 2008, 11:43

$575,000 ;-)

Are you considering buying? Be patient - prices will continue to rationalize. - Wed Mar 5 2008, 19:23

Doug, I think what most have answered is "Is it wise for me to attend the offer meeting?" For most buyers, that answer is no for the reasons already covered.

But to answer your specific question, "are you allowed?" - the answer is yes. There is no legal reason for any of the other parties to deny your presence at an offer presentation. The seller or seller's agent might protest to your agent that they don't want you there, but they cannot prevent you from coming. Now should you still attend, they could walk out and refuse to do business with you in the room. They might not do that if you really are their only choice of offers. Even if you get through all this, then you, quite possibly, have put the seller in a frame of mind of confrontation vs. you - and that's probably something you don't want to have happen. - Wed Feb 13 2008, 16:43